Airbus predicts world freighter aircraft fleet to grow 45% by 2044
It will increase to 3,420 units in the next 20 years
World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and trade remain the main drivers of air cargo. With long term trade forecasted at 2.7% CAGR, Airbus forecasts that air cargo will develop at a rate of 3.3% annually over the next 20 years, effectively almost doubling cargo volumes over the next two decades. Airbus forecasts significant air cargo growth as it has proved essential - not just to support economies, but also to connect remote communities, transport essential and health-critical goods, and enable local business development in emerging countries.
After rapid cargo fleet growth during the pandemic, fuelled by an increase of passenger aircraft conversions into freighters and minimum retirement of previous generation freighters, Airbus forecasts that going forward, a large proportion of these older freighters will leave the fleet and be replaced by newer, more fuel efficient freighters such as the A-350F or A-320/A-321 and A-330 Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversions.
The industry also forecasts trade lanes, and therefore air cargo flows diversification, as more countries in the Asia-Pacific region become industrial centres. Likewise, GDP and demographic forecasts indicate that new countries such as Brazil, Indonesia or Vietnam will emerge as major consumer economies in the coming decades. This will initiate a gradual shift in air cargo geography and the global air freight map.
Of the total need for 2,605 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific and North America will account for nearly two-thirds of demand, requiring 850 and 920 aircraft, respectively.
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AVIONEWS - World Aeronautical Press Agency
AVIONEWS - World Aeronautical Press Agency